Will Texas Become A Presidential Battleground?
All this week, NPR is taking a look at the demographic changes that could reshape the political landscape in Texas over the next decade — and what that could mean for the rest of the country.
With the two parties in Washington gridlocked on immigration, the budget and other issues, it's easy to forget that when it comes to winning presidential elections, one party has a distinct advantage.
"The Democrats have a significant advantage on the electoral map that gives them the inside track going into 2016," says independent political analyst Rhodes Cook.
Cook's latest red and blue charts show that what used to be a Republican advantage has — over the past generation — flipped. There are now 18 states plus the District of Columbia that voted Democratic in every one of the last six presidential elections. That gives the Democrats a comfortable base of 242 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win the presidency. On the other hand, only 13 states with 102 electoral votes have gone Republican each of the last six elections.
That is the painful reality for Republicans like strategist Alex Lundry.
"We're starting out really behind the curve here," he says. "We have to expand the map because the map right now is really disadvantaged distinctly for Republicans."
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